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($10,112.01)

That’s a large number.  A much larger number than I thought it would be.  That number right there is how much we have paid on our primary Visa credit card this year.  I should explain something.  We don’t carry credit card balances on a month to month basis.  When I get a credit card bill I do everything I can to pay it off.  So far I have been successful.  Right now my success is just about to run out of steam.  In order to pay off this card we have to use a sizable chunk of our “short-term” savings.  Granted the bill this time around is not so bad.  Only about $1,700 dollars.  It’s all basically my Mexico trip right there.  Studying abroad does not come cheaply and it especially does not come free.  It was all worth it though.

The point to this whole post is that the wife and I are worried about draining our savings account.  We are hoping to buy a house in about a year and that savings account is going to be our down payment.  Naturally we’d like to keep a sizeable chunk of money in there due to this being the case.  With that being said we have decided to put ourselves on a strict no-spend diet.  In order to keep ourselves sane this will not apply to the small amount of mad money we get on a monthly basis, but other than that cash we will not be spending any money on any unnecessary items.

Enter the Wealth Tracking Tools

I’d like to make sure that I’m actually building wealth over time.  As I already mentioned we’re looking to purchase a home in about a year and we’d like to be prepared for such.  With that being said I’ve decided that after months of procrastination it’s about time that I start using some tools to track our progress (or lack thereof) with our financial goals.  Starting later this week I’ll be posting on a regular (monthly) basis updates to our net worth and other relevant financial tracking numbers.  Of course I’ll be using Excel to create these spreadsheet tools.  Hopefully with our increased vigilance of following our budget we will be able to accelerate the wealth building process.  One can only hope.

Ben Bernanke and the Fed decided today to leave their federal funds rate at its current level of 2%.  They’re finally starting to worry about inflation and seem to think that there is much more upside risk (by inflation of course) than downside risk (recession and a slowing economy) at this point.  I’m inclined to agree with good old Bernanke on this one.  Although I’ve been thinking that this was the case over the past several rate cuts that the Federal Reserve has made.

The question that I’m asking at this point however is: is it too little and too late?  I’ll admit that the financial markets have been arduous lately.  I know this more than a lot of people, because I work at a credit union in Phoenix, AZ.  I’ve seen the massive slowdowns and read about the increasing loan delinquencies and writedowns that are taking place.  This with a relatively small (relatively speaking) and very conservative credit union with around $3 billion in assets.  Things must really be difficult for a lot of the larger financial institutions.  It’s obvious they are actually from the constant news of new write-downs.  This so-called recession has even taken from us one of the largest investing companies in the U.S., Bear Stearns.  Things are definitely crazy, but have these huge rate cuts been helping?  Or have they actually been hindering the recovery process?

These Things Take Time

Anyone who’s studied even the most basic of economics knows that market changes don’t happen overnight.  They also don’t happen in a week, or even a month.  Large changes in the financial markets can take months and even years to happen.  Keeping this in mind, one would ask why the Fed cut rates twice to a total of 1.25% percent over a matter of about a week and a half not too long ago?  These things take time, right?  So why so much over such a short amount of time?  I understand their reasoning.  They were hoping to restore confidence to the financial markets… specifically the stock markets.  Something that’s not exactly in their job description.  However I won’t go into that as it’s a completely new topic.  My point in bringing this up is that I’m actually fairly convinced that these large and frequent cuts have done much more harm than good.  All opinions are welcome on the matter, and keep in mind that I am no economist and this is only my opinion.

Have you seen the price of oil lately?  Or the consumer confidence index?  They’re at an all time high and low, respectively speaking.  Obviously there are many factors going into these things, but it’d be foolish to assume or to say that these fed rate cuts have nothing to do with it.  I’m of the opinion that because of the .75% emergency rate cut that the Fed made back in January, followed by the .50% percent cut a week later that consumer confidence was actually hurt.  As a generally uneducated crowd when it comes to finance and the ways of the financial markets we sort of come to expect what’s normal.  What’s normal to us are small and steady rate changes.  .25% here and there up or down are pretty normal in our eyes.  Naturally when we see a much larger change that was initiated by an emergency Fed session we’re going to think something bad is going on.  Self-fulfilling prophesy is a relatively common term that floats around in economics.  In the case of these ridiculously large cuts by Bernanke and company this term might be applied.  As consumers we noticed large emergency cuts and naturally starting to believe that things were much worse than we had previously thought.  Naturally this caused us to become skeptical of the whole situation and we began being more careful with our money.  Self fulfilling prophecy?  I do believe so.

What I’d Like to See

I’d love to see a rate increase in the next few months.  Inflation is going to be a huge problem if the Fed doesn’t do something to try and combat it.  Keeping rates steady will hopefully stop any more increases in the level of inflation, but it’s not going to cut it down.  Not at all.  

I came across an interesting article the other day on the Wall Street Journal Online. Cyril Moulle-Berteaux of Traxis Partners LP (a hedge fund based in New York) wrote an article entitled “The Housing Crisis is Over.” He brought up some very interesting points, which I’d like to highlight for you and also provide some commentary as well as my own personal opinion on the points that he’s made.

Mr. Moulle-Berteaux begins his article by mentioning that headlines in the financial as well as the popular press are intensifying. Yet even with all of these cries of doom and gloom he predicts that “April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market.” This article, although posted almost a month ago, caught my eye because of the significance of this statement. What would Mr. Moulle-Berteaux use to back up this statement? How could he possibly claim that we’re at the bottom and won’t go down any more when it seems so obvious that this is quite untrue? Isn’t it?

What the “Bottom” Means

The author reminds us that “a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor.” All things considered this makes his profound statement seem less impossible and even somewhat likely. After all we have been in this housing bust for several years now, shouldn’t it be about time for us to be at the bottom of the bust? It is definitely a possibility, but is it an actuality?

Mr. Moulle-Berteaux’s Argument

The author argued that the same thing that caused this bust is likely to pull us out of it: affordability. According to him during the 90’s and early 2000’s it took 19% of average monthly income to “service a conforming mortgage on the average home purchased.”  For first time buyers he claims that it took 29% of monthly income to purchase a home.  These numbers jumped for non-first-time home buyers and first-time buyers, respectively, to 25% and 37% of monthly income by the year 2006.  Over the past two years (since the previous mentioned point in 2006) Moulle-Berteaux argues that home prices have fallen 10-15% and mortgage rates have come down 70 basis points from their high (a basis point is equal to 1/100th of a percent).  This reduction in home prices has brought the monthly income/mortgage payment ratio back in line at 19% of monthly income for the average home buyer and 31% for the first-time home buyer.  In other words, he claims, “homes on average are back to being as affordable as during the best of times in the 1990s.”  

Essentially Moulle-Bertreaux is arguing that although inventories are at their highest levels ever and that home values are dropping like flies, we have reached a bottom.  He claims that inventories are increasing, but at decreasingly smaller levels and that prices - although they will continue to drop until sometime in 2009 - will not drop at the level that they have heretofore been dropping at.  It’s an interesting argument, and it does make sense but does not seem to be the reality of the situation - at least not yet.

The Market in My Neighborhood

I did a little bit of research for the median home price in Phoenix, AZ as well as the median and average household incomes.  I then used these figures to calculate a percentage of an average mortgage payment (based on a rate of 6.31% APY and the median home price of $210,000 with no down payment) and the 2006 greater-Phoenix median household income of $51,862 dollars.  With these figures I calculated that the average home buyer (based on their income equaling the median income) in the Phoenix area buying a home that’s valued at the median price would have a mortgage payment to monthly income ratio of 38% which is well above the authors claimed percentages of 19% and 31% for the average home buyer and the first-time buyer.

The market in my neighborhood is - based on the authors facts and figures - far above the affordability index that he has created.  So for the Phoenix area at least it seems that the housing crisis is not over… not yet.

How is the market in your neck of the woods?  Does it fall in line with these “averages” that Mr. Moulle-Berteaux has stated?

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